EURUSD 19 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday Analysis - US Housing/FOMC Minutes

This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 19 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

Some USA economic news today:
US : Housing Starts & FOMC Meeting Minutes

The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary:

Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
- A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
- Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.

4H Chart Analysis

1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation

2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.

🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):

Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)

Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)

🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.

🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).

3️⃣
🔹Price swept the Liq. at 1.04472, mitigated the 4H Demand and created a Bullish CHoCH which faded in the same candle and created a Bearish CHoCH. Which formed technically a new Supply zone that price is currently in.

🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme where we are getting the current corrective Bearish OF.

15m Chart Analysis

1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Pullback Phase

2️⃣
🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.

🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS.

🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount which we reached yesterday.

🔹Price had mitigated partially the 4H Big Demand zone which leaded to Sweeping Liq. above the INT-INT Structure High (4H Bullish CHOCH) but again price failed to hold bullish and formed another Bearish iBOS.

🔹We still in the 15m Swing Pullback Phase and there is a high probability that we’ll have a deeper swing pullback to the extreme 15m Demand as price currently in the recent 4H Supply formed yesterday.

🔹I’ll be looking for longs only when we confirm a Bullish iBOS for me to play the 15m Swing continuation. Otherwise, I’ll follow the recent 4H Supply formed/15m INT Bearish Structure.

3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback Phase till we have a Bullish INT Structure/mitigating the 15m extreme demand.

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/c5Mj5r90-EURUSD-19-Feb-2025-W8-Intraday-US-Housing-FOMC-Minutes/

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