This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 23 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration
- Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
- Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
- US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback.
🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure).
🔹Currently price is within a 4H FLIP zone that caused the BOS. Which could keep price bullish to target the weak INT high.
3️⃣
🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply.
🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price created a bullish BOS. After a BOS we expect a pullback phase.
🔹We didn’t mitigate any supply zone to initiate the Swing Pullback Phase yet so we could continue bullish.
🔹Price is currently within the 4H FLIP zone and at the INT Structure extreme.
🔹The last defined demand zone within the INT structure failed and there is a probability that the INT structure could turn bearish to fulfill the BOS requirement for a Pullback Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is still bullish until we have a confirmed bearish iBOS to initiate the Pullback Phase.
🔹Longs: As the demand failed, I’ll be waiting for a shift in the OF to bullish and demand to start holding to target the Weak INT High.
🔹Shorts: Will be waiting for bearish iBOS for pullback phase.
Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/AFmAnnEd-EURUSD-23-Jan-2025-W4-Intraday-Analysis-US-Jobless-Claims/
