This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
Nothing much changed in sentiment since Tramp inauguration, yesterday Trump ease the tone on tariffs which gave optimism in the market (Risk Off) and weakened the dollar across the board.
- Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
- Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone’s economic outlook.
- US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹As expected, price created a bullish BOS as per the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback.
🔹Price didn’t mitigate any supply after the BOS so there is a high probability that we will continue up till we reach the 4H or Daily supply to initiate a BOS pullback phase (Can’t be ruled, we always have the expectation that a pullback will start at any time after any break of structure).
🔹Price mitigated the 4H demand within the 4H bullish INT structure and currently targeting the 4H Weak INT high.
3️⃣
🔹My expectations is set for price to continue bullish till we mitigate a 4H/Daily supply.
🔹Will be following the LTF to follow the expectation of bullish continuation while putting in consideration the probability of a bearish move for the bullish BOS pullback phase that can start anytime.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish / ii Structure Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹After the Bullish BOS, price still holding bullish respecting the Bullish INT Structure.
🔹INT Structure Strong low liquidity swept and price mitigated the 4H demand zone to continue bullish.
🔹** 15m Swing is currently the 4H swing and I started mapping the ii Structure until I can reset my 15m Swing with a bigger price range.
3️⃣
🔹Currently ii Structure is bullish and we are in continuation phase to target the Weak INT High.
🔹Expectations is that price to continue bullish and to mitigate the 4H/Daily Supply zone to maybe initiate a pullback phase.
Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/6lNn33ot-EURUSD-24-Jan-2025-W4-Intraday-Analysis-EU-US-PMI/
