This is my Weekly Markups on EURUSD for 24 OCT 2025 W43 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
The market maintained a risk-off sentiment on October 22, 2025, with investors favoring the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties, while the Euro struggled due to Europe’s economic and political challenges. Key drivers included intensified US-China trade tensions, with tariff threats raising fears of global economic slowdown, and persistent Eurozone issues, such as France’s ongoing budget disputes and Germany’s pre-election uncertainty. The ECB is holding interest rates steady, supported by inflation stabilizing near 2% and slightly improved 2025 growth forecasts, while the Fed is anticipated to implement a modest rate cut in November, tempered by strong US consumer spending and lingering inflation concerns. Recent weak Eurozone PMI data contrasted with robust US retail sales further highlighted economic divergence, with markets focused on upcoming US CPI data for additional clues.
The euro is struggling because the market worries that persistently weak factory-gate prices in Germany signal broader disinflation across the euro-area, reinforcing the ECB’s cautious tone and lowering the chance of any near-term hike. At the same time, the dollar is finding a floor: even though Fed officials have talked down the pace of further cuts, U.S. yields remain comfortably above their European counterparts and the regional-bank stress that flared last week has eased. Put together, the narrative is “softer European growth and inflation vs. a still-resilient U.S. backdrop,” a mix that leaves EUR/USD biased lower unless upcoming data show a revival in euro-area activity or a marked U.S. slowdown.
Daily Chart Markups
4H Chart Markups
1H Chart Markups
15m Chart Markups
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