This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
- Tariff Discussions Continue: Still the main factor currently that effects the market and supporting USD with Trump insistence to apply Tariffs Plan.
- Powell Press Conference: Today Rate decision is already priced in but the market is waiting for Powell press conference to give clues on what will be the Fed plan with Trump’s recent announcements as on one hand, he has expressed a strong commitment to reducing inflation; on the other, his proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1, 2025, are anticipated to exert upward pressure on prices.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback.
🔹Price is currently mitigating the 4H Demand and we could see some bullish move to facilitate the LTF pullbacks only.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to facilitate the Daily Bearish Continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹Swing structure turned bearish after mitigating the Daily Supply zone.
🔹With the bearish BOS, a pullback is expected, currently INT structure is bearish and mitigating the 4H Demand.
🔹Price currently at the extreme of the Bearish INT structure and there is a HP that the Strong INT High could be taken out in order to facilitate the 15m Bearish Swing Pullback Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set neutral due to the following:
- US Interest Rate decision and Powell Press Conference.
- We are currently within the 4H demand and it’s tough to follow the 15m Bearish INT Structure and Short.
- Not yet Bullish iBOS to indicate that the 15m Swing Pullback is starting.
Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/9hcz5KfY-EURUSD-29-Jan-2025-W5-Intraday-US-Interest-Rate-Powell/
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