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EURUSD 3-7 Mar 2025 W10 – Weekly Analysis- EUR Rate Decision – US NFP Week!

Published by

Amr Sadek

on

This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Mar 2025 W10 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

The EUR/USD pair faces a slightly bearish bias this week, driven by key economic events, geopolitical risks, and trade uncertainties.

Key Events to Watch:

🔹 ECB Interest Rate Decision (March 6) – Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut to 2.50%. A dovish ECB could pressure the euro, while any hints of a pause may provide support.
🔹 U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (March 7) – Forecast at +133K jobs, with unemployment steady at 4.0%. Weak data could weigh on the USD, while stronger payrolls and wage growth may boost it.
🔹 Trump’s Tariffs & Trade War Risks – New U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China take effect March 4, with potential auto tariffs on Europe looming. These policies favor the dollar by driving risk-off sentiment.
🔹 Geopolitical Tensions – U.S.-Ukraine relations deteriorated after a public Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelenskiy. Further instability could impact investor confidence and increase safe-haven demand for the USD.

Trading Strategy:

✅ Bearish Scenario: A dovish ECB, strong U.S. NFP, and escalating trade risks could push EUR/USD down.
✅ Bullish Scenario: If the ECB signals a rate-cut pause and U.S. jobs data disappoint, EUR/USD may test 1.055–1.06 .

Overall, the fundamental backdrop leans in favor of the USD, but volatility is expected, especially around the ECB and NFP releases. Traders should stay alert to geopolitical developments and tariff announcements that may shift sentiment.

Weekly Chart Analysis

1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish (Pullback Phase)
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)

3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.

🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous weeks analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.

🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after volatile week.

🔹With the previous week Bearish close, weekly is consolidating between 1.05xx and 1.02xx

🔹Still the recent Bullish Fractal and Demand holding but failed to break the high (1.0533) so there is a probability to target the low 1.0285/10 and could extend to continue the Bearish INT Structure with iBOS.

Daily Chart Analysis

1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.

3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.

🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.

🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.

🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.

🔹With the Weekly is consolidating the Daily consolidation range showing that we are failing to continue Bullish and with the recent Bearish CHoCH we are back to the Bearish INT Structure continuation and we may target the Weak INT Low (At least 1.0285).

🔹Price could pullback to the recent Daily Supply before continuing down.

🔹Expectation is set to Bearish with cautious of the Liq. built above 1.05333 and the range we are in.

4H Chart Analysis

1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Adjusted my INT structure to align with the previous Bullish move)
🔹Complex Swing INT Structure

2️⃣
🔹As the Swing is Bullish, expectations were set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High and create a Bullish BOS after the Deep Pullback to the Swing Demand.

🔹During the Swing Bullish Continuation after the Deep Pullback, INT Structure kept holding Bullish to fulfill the Bullish continuation phase.

🔹With price reaching the Swing Extreme Premium zone and the expectation of breaking the Weak Swing High, price failed 2 times and with the 3rd attempt it created a Bearish iBOS. This indicated that the Swing INT structure is Complex and the Daily/Weekly TFs are still in play.

3️⃣
🔹After the Bearish iBOS, we expect PB, there is no clear POI for price to initiate PB except the Liq. at 1.03730 which was swept on Friday and 1.03173 before mitigating the last clear 4H Demand.

🔹With the recent Bearish iBOS, the PB could start at anytime. The Liq. swept from 1.0373 could provide that PB otherwise we will continue Bearish till the clear 4H Demand (Which I doubt that it could provide the continuation) but with LTF shifting Bullish, we can follow that.

Economic Events for the Week

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/aF7zcxId-EURUSD-3-7-Mar-2025-W10-Weekly-Analysis-EU-Rate-US-NFP-Week/

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