This is my Weekly Markups on EURUSD for 3 NOV 2025 W45 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
The market sentiment remains in a risk-off mode, where investors are favoring the safety of the US Dollar over the Euro due to growing worries about global economic slowdowns and policy uncertainties. This caution is pushing the Dollar higher as a reliable haven, while the Euro weakens amid softer Eurozone growth signals. Key drivers include diverging central bank outlooks: the Federal Reserve has adopted a more cautious stance on rate cuts after recent data showed persistent US inflation and a resilient job market, contrasting with the European Central Bank’s readiness to ease policy further to support a sluggish economy. Recent economic releases, like weaker Eurozone manufacturing numbers, have added to the Euro’s vulnerability, while no major geopolitical flare-ups have shifted the focus away from these monetary themes.
The EUR/USD pair has weakened recently as the Dollar gains ground from the Fed’s hawkish tilt, which signals fewer rate reductions ahead and keeps US yields attractive for investors. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure from the ECB’s dovish signals and disappointing regional data, highlighting slower growth that could prompt quicker policy loosening. In this narrative, the Euro is under strain because Eurozone recovery looks fragile against a backdrop of potential ECB cuts, while the Dollar draws steady support from a Fed that’s holding back on easing amid strong underlying US economic momentum—creating a clear policy gap that favors further pair declines unless fresh data alters the balance.
Daily Chart Markups
4H Chart Markups
1H Chart Markups
15m Chart Markups
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