This is my Weekly Markups on EURUSD for 13 OCT 2025 W42 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Current Sentiment
Overall market sentiment leans toward risk-off, driven by fresh U.S. tariff threats on China and a partial U.S. government shutdown that has heightened economic uncertainty. This cautious mood weakens the Euro, as investors pull back from European assets amid political instability in France—where a collapsed government has delayed budget plans—and softer German economic data signaling slower growth. On the U.S. Dollar side, the environment bolsters it as a safe-haven choice during volatility. Key drivers include diverging central bank outlooks: the ECB is holding rates steady at 2.15% with projections for inflation near 2% and more easing possible if growth falters, while the Fed faces pressure to cut rates further (potentially two more this year) amid sticky inflation around 0.3% monthly core readings and labor market concerns, though sticky inflation limits aggressive moves. Geopolitical trade frictions add to the mix, amplifying dollar demand.
The EUR/USD pair has seen recent weakening, trading in a contained range around the mid-1.16 area after slipping from monthly highs, as eurozone vulnerabilities outweigh U.S. policy softening. The Euro faces pressure because European growth risks and political gridlock in major economies like France and Germany erode confidence in the region’s recovery, prompting expectations of prolonged ECB easing that diminishes the currency’s appeal. Meanwhile, the Dollar finds support due to its status as a global safe haven amid escalating U.S.-China trade disputes and domestic shutdown disruptions, even as Fed rate-cut bets temper some gains—creating a narrative where short-term dollar resilience clashes with longer-term easing pressures, keeping the pair range-bound but tilted lower until European stability improves or U.S. data surprises to the downside.
Daily Chart Markups
4H Chart Markups
1H Chart Markups
15m Chart Markups
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