This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
Mixed Labor Market Signals
- The February 7 NFP report showed 143K new jobs (below expectations of 170K), signaling potential cooling in the labor market. However, strong wage growth (0.5% MoM, 4.1% YoY) and a 4% unemployment rate (down from 4.1%) suggest lingering inflationary pressures.
- Markets may interpret this as a “Goldilocks” scenario: cooling job growth could delay Fed rate hikes, but elevated wage inflation keeps stagflation risks alive.
Tariff Volatility and Trade Uncertainty
- Trump’s tariffs (10% on China, delayed 25% on Canada/Mexico) dominate market psychology. While tariffs are a negotiation tool, their sudden implementation and reversal create uncertainty. For example:
- Automotive and energy sectors face direct risks due to integrated North American supply chains.
- Consumer goods (e.g., electronics, produce) may see price hikes, amplifying inflation fears.
- Retaliatory measures from China add to global trade tensions.
Week major news events
- Fed’s Powell testifies
- ECB Lagarde Speech
- US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales
- EU GDP
Given the forecasts and the recent NFP report showing slower job growth, market sentiment could be cautious. If the CPI and PPI readings come in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns about inflation and lead to USD Strength. Investors might seek safe-haven assets.
Conversely, if the CPI and PPI readings are in line with or lower than expectations, it could provide some relief to the markets and support a more positive sentiment which will lead to Weaker USD.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after a volatile week.
🔹Price still looking bearish to target the Weak INT low to target the Weekly unmitigated demand. Ultimately targeting the Swing Weak Low.
🔹Noticing that the Bearish INT Low didn’t pullback to at least the INT Structure EQ (50%) so there is a chance that price could hold the current Weekly Demand to fulfil the i-BOS pullback phase which will require MTF to confirm this scenario.
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish continuation targeting the Weak INT Low and the unmitigated Weekly Demand.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH.
🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase.
🔹Expectations is price to continue Bearish to target the Weak INT Low and hopefully we get a confirmed close which is fulfilling the Weekly target of continuing Bearish.
🔹Notice that if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish.
Economic Events for the Week
Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/8slEXkX7-EURUSD-10-14-Feb-2025-W7-Weekly-Analysis-US-CPI-PPI-Powell/
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