This is my Weekly Markups on EURUSD for 15 OCT 2025 W42 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Current Sentiment

The overall market sentiment leans risk-off, with investors favoring safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, a US government shutdown delaying key economic reports, and political instability in France following the collapse of its government. This cautious mood weakens the Euro, as Eurozone growth remains sluggish with recent data showing a decline in the Leading Economic Index and deteriorating economic sentiment in Germany. In contrast, the US Dollar holds firmer as a traditional refuge, bolstered by resilient US economic fundamentals despite policy uncertainties. Dominant themes include diverging central bank paths—the European Central Bank (ECB) has paused rate cuts at 2.00% with inflation near its 2% target, signaling a potential end to easing, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces expectations for two more cuts this year amid sticky inflation around 3% and a softening labor market. Geopolitical risks, such as US tariff threats and fiscal worries, further amplify this divide, with upcoming US CPI data on October 24 poised to influence Fed decisions.

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