This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 17 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. 4H
  2. 15m

4H Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bullish

2.

  • Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS.
  • After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH.
  • We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it’s also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs.

3.

  • After reaching the Daily/4H Supply, price started to show some reaction. Yesterday the CHoCH was below the 4H Demand (FLIP) down, which is far away for price to reach to indicate that the 4H is starting a pullback.
  • Put price yesterday with US news created a new high and for that the CHoCh is moved to the upside. If price did the CHoCH today and hold the supply formed that then there will be a better probability that that pullback is starting.

15m Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • Internal Bullish

2.

  • Price did another Bullish BOS yesterday with US news. This means that in order for price to start the Swing pullback on the 4H, we want to see a break of the Swing Low in order to have a Bearish Structure on the 15m and the 4H will have the CHoCH which is an indication for the pullback.
  • Buys makes sense because the 15m Swing in still bullish but the HTF are looking for a pullback so there is more probability we will have this pullback soon.

3.

  • There are no unmitigated POIs in this Bullish Swing for longs. So the ChoCH on the 4H idea and the current 15m Swing low being near is adding for me a probability that we will take out the 15m Swing Low / 4H CHoCH to initiate the pullback.
  • Most probably Monday will be interesting to see the setup.

Have all a nice weekend.

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/OMoeLSRq-EURUSD-17-Nov-2023-Intraday-Analysis-EUR-CPI-Day/

I’m Amr

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