This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 22-26 Apr 2024 W16 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

In light of the recent passage of an aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan by the U.S. House of Representatives, it is anticipated that this could escalate geopolitical tensions. This, in turn, may prompt investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, thereby bolstering the strength of the U.S. dollar. This trend is likely to be further reinforced by the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

The market will also be looking at the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.

3.

  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
  • Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.

Daily Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.

3.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
  • Price could initiate a PB at anytime or after reaching the Daily Extreme Demand.
  • CHoCH is currently away from current price so maybe we can create a new low before we initiate the INT PB Phase.
  • More price development required.

4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.

4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • INT / Swing Pullback Phase

2.

  • Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.

3.

  • After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Currently price within the Weekly Demand and approaching a 4H/Daily demand zone.
  • With the INT Structure Pullback Phase initiated after the Bullish CHoCH. Price had a deep PB to the 4H Demand formed.
  • Expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT and Swing Pullback Phases.

4.

  • 4H Supply zone for possible reactions. But note that it’s not well positioned within the 4H Swing (In Discount) so there is a probability that it will get run till the Swing EQ/Daily Supply zone.

Economic Events for the Week

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/MZE8BBwg-EURUSD-22-26-Apr-2024-W17-Weekly-Analysis-EU-PMI-US-PCE/

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