This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 22-26 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  • Weekly
  • Daily
  • 4H
  • Economic Events

Weekly Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • INT Extreme

2.

  • After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.

3.

  • With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from.
  • Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply.
  • Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.

Daily Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bullish
  • Reached Extreme

2.

  • Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in, the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn’t reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS.
  • For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
  • But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up.
  • Following the recent INT Structure, Price swept LIQ from the recent Daily Demand zone and reached the INT Structure EQ where we can expect demand to step in and target the Weak INT High.
    Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us.

3.

  • Price managed to get out of the range and approaching a Daily demand zone.
  • We didn’t mitigate it yet but price is bouncing up from the Swing EQ.

4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.

4H Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bearish
  • OF Bullish
  • In Discount

2.

  • Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  • After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  • Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H/Daily demand zones and ranged.
  • OF currently is bullish after the Bullish CHoCH. Demand formed from the CHoCH is mitigated and still holding. But that Bullish OF is not coming from a HP POI so there is a high probability we will continue down unless we see Bullish OF holding and continuing.
  • Current targets will be the Daily/4H demand zones and we can wait for price development on LTF to see if we will resume the Bullish Swing or not.

3.

  • Swing extreme 4H demand and Daily for possible continuation to the upside.

Economic Events for the Week

Jan 22

Comment:

Update to the recent CHoCHs on Daily TF :

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/szIg7BiC-EURUSD-22-26-Jan-2024-W4-Weekly-Analysis-EUR-Rate-Decision/

I’m Amr

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