This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. Weekly
  2. Daily
  3. 4H
  4. Economic Events

Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • INT Extreme

2.

  • After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.

3.

  • With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from.
  • Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply.
  • Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish.

Daily Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bullish
  • Reached Extreme

2.

  • Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in, the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn’t reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS.
  • For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low.
  • But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up.
  • We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High.
    Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us.

3.

  • Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone (Was mapping only the Inside Bar) that caused the bearish CHoCH and continued down.
  • Current PA is so corrective and doesn’t have any momentum.

4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.

4H Chart Analysis



1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bullish
  • OF Bearish
  • In Discount

2.

  • Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  • After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  • Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
  • This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High.
  • But be mindful that the OF is so bearish in the Swing Pullback Phase and Demand is not holding and we see momentum. And with the Daily Bearish Swing there is a high probability that we will continue down. So be cautious with the Bullish Structures as it could be only Fake-Out.
    More price development needed with the current PA.

3.

  • Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones.
  • As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase.
  • We have seen that Price swept the LIQ below the Strong INT Low and created a Bullish CHoCH but still Supply in Control.
  • If the last demand created from the LIQ sweep failed and we confirmed a close below the INT Low, My expectations will be that the Daily Swing Continuation in Play and we will take the Current 4H Swing low and Daily INT Low.
  • This week is so volatile as we have EUR Zone GDP and CPI also USA FOMC and NFP. So be cautious this week.

Economic Events for the Week

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/aYvtEt45-EURUSD-29-2-Feb-2024-W5-Weekly-Analysis-EUR-CPI-US-FOMC-NFP/

I’m Amr

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