This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

4H
15m



4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bearish
  • OF Bearish
  • In Swing Discount

2.

  • Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback.
  • After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH.
  • Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS.
  • This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over.
  • We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start.
  • More price development needed with the current PA.

3.

  • As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low.
  • After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting.
  • We mitigated the 4H Supply and price reacted from there. Currently we don’t have a Bullish CHoCH to confirm the INT Structure Pullback started (It’s not a must but it’s currently my mechanical approach to define Pullbacks).
  • Price could continue down to create a new low and then the CHoCH position will be changed or Price will try again to create a Bullish CHoCH.
  • Waiting for more price development

15m Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Reached EQ

2.

  • Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply.
  • After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ.
  • Price reached and mitigated the 15m/4H Supply zones and INT structure turned bearish signaling the 15m Swing Pullback is finished and we are currently Pro Swing aligning with the Bearish Swing as expected.
  • Expectations is that we will target the Weak Swing Low.

3.

  • After INT Structure turned bearish (iBOS) we expect a pullback.
  • The 15m Supply zone within the INT Structure is the only zone that can provide Short opportunity after confirmation.
  • Be mindful that today there is heavy news for Germany, but the most waited news is the US ADP and FOMC/Powell Conference so volatility will be high.

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/jektsqLR-EURUSD-31-Jan-2024-W5-Intraday-Analysis-FOMC-Day/

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