This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Nov 2023 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. 4H
  2. 15m

Before the analysis. i want to note that as price moved a lot yesterday it becomes difficult to have a proper trade as the momentum is so bullish, can’t long the highs or trying to follow the continuation of that volatility as you want to wait for price to pullback to proper and well defined POI’s. On the other hand trying to play a pullback against this Bullish move will be rough and you need to have expectation that you could get caught several times trying to pick a high before the actual pullback.

Overall i’ll be very cautious this week till we have a proper structure at least on the 15m to play accordingly. So lets start the analysis!


4H Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • INT Bullish

2.

  • Bullish Swing continuation happened as expected and we created a Bullish BOS.
  • After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Currently the CHoCH is far away and i’m expecting price to create a higher CHoCH to initiate a sign that the pullback maybe starting.
  • We just formed IMO 1 demand zone within the Swing that it’s also a FLIP to the supply formed. So most probably if we reached that level we will have potential longs.

3.

  • Price had fully mitigated a 4H supply within the Daily Supply zone. My expectation is if a pullback will start, there is a high probability that we can get this pullback from this zone.
  • But be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride.
  • Will let the LTF (15m) guide me.

15m Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bullish
  • Internal Bullish

2.

  • Swing structure continuing bullish and we managed to create another Bullish BOS yesterday with CPI news as expected.
  • After a BOS we are expecting a pullback and first sign will be a CHoCH. Which we already did and we confirmed INT High currently.
  • If price wants to do a pullback i prefer to have the INT structure turning bearish first and then we can look for Shorts in the pullback phase.
  • Currently price had fully mitigated a 4H Supply within a daily supply zone. So, a bearish INT Structure will be a good sign that the pullback is starting.
  • Just be mindful that price is so bullish and pullbacks will be a rough ride.

3.

  • Possible demand zones for longs when we reach that levels

Nov 15, 2023

Comment:

This is an update to the 15m TF after zooming in deep to understand what happened up after the BOS.

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/y6P6ucpk-URUSD-15-Nov-2023-Intraday-Analysis-US-PPI-Day/

I’m Amr

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