This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment is mixed following the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell’s speech. The US dollar initially strengthened after the Fed, but then weakened as investors focused on the central bank’s dovish comments. This could be positive for EURUSD, which climbed after the Fed meeting. However, caution is still warranted as Non-Farm Payroll data, a key US jobs report, is due on Friday, which could impact the dollar and EURUSD again.

The following news today will have some volatility before NFP tomorrow:

  • German Mfg PMI Final
  • Eurozone Mfg PMI Final
  • US Trade Balance
  • US Initial Jobless Claims

4H Chart Analysis

1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish

2.

  • Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.

3.

  • As the INT Structure turned Bearish, it signals that the Swig PB maybe over and we are currently Pro Swing.
  • After the Bearish iBOS we are expecting a PB which already reached the Refined 4H FLIP Zone.
  • Currently the Liquidity above the 4H Supply which makes it not a HP Zone for Shorts unless we have clear Bearish Structure formation on the 15m.
  • I Prefer the Sweep of Liq above the 4H Supply (CHoCH) before Shorts.
  • Also be mindful that the Strong INT High could be run in the situation of a complex Deeper Pullback Phase for the 4H Swing.
  • With FOMC Yesterday and NFP tomorrow, this is the behavior of price due to Investors positioning.
  • Note: Daily is ranging and 4H too 🤷‍♂️

15m Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Shorts Phase B (HP)
  • Longs Phase C (LP)

2.

  • With the volatility of yesterday news, price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme.
  • No clear direction as we are back again to the same range we are in since Apr 23.
  • Shorts make sense, but no potential POI / Clear INT Structure to follow.
  • Also with the 4H Liquidity above the 15m Swing High, there is a HP that the 15m Swing will get run.

3.

  • After the Bearish BOS we expected a Pullback, which was initiated after the Bullish iBOS.

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/mm5j7D4V-EURUSD-2-May-2024-W18-Intraday-Analysis-EU-CPI-US-Jobless/

I’m Amr

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