This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-3 May 2024 W18 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

Potential EUR Upside:

  • Weaker Dollar: The recent US economic data, particularly the lower than expected GDP growth, has weakened the US dollar. This trend could continue if upcoming data disappoints.
  • Eurozone Data: Key Eurozone data releases (flash GDP and CPI) could show signs of improving economic health, boosting the Euro.

Potential EUR Downside:

  • Strong US Jobs Report: The highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could show strong job growth, strengthening the dollar.
  • Hawkish Fed: The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a key event. If the Fed signals a more aggressive rate hike path to combat inflation, the dollar will likely strengthen.

Overall:

The EUR/USD sentiment is currently uncertain. The direction will depend on the outcome of key data releases and the Fed meeting.

Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.

3.

  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
  • Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.

4.

  • Price currently within a Weekly demand zone that can initiate a minor Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.

Daily Chart Analysis



1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.

3.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • Currently price is within the Weekly Demand and swept Liq from the left.
  • Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone.
  • We didn’t mitigate any HP Supply to initiate the INT Structure continuation phase so the scenario will be that price still could continue to mitigate the Daily Supply Zone.
  • Other scenario that with the corrective more currently we are in price will continue down without the mitigation of a Supply zone.
  • More price development required / LTF confirmations for the 2 scenarios.

4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.

4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Sub-Internal Bullish
  • INT / Swing Pullback Phase

2.

  • Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.

3.

  • After a BOS we expect a Pullback. Price tapped into the Weekly demand and initiated the Swing Pullback Phase.
  • With the Bullish OF and as expected price reached the 4H supply with possible reaction from there.

4.

  • With Sub-INT / OF is holding Bullish, I Still see more upside as long we hold the recent Sub-INT Low (Green Line).
  • A break of the Sub-INT Low, this will confirm that the Pullback Phase maybe is over and we will continue down targeting the INT Low. On the other side if the Sub-INT Structure will stay Bullish, there is a HP we are targeting the mitigation of the Daily Supply.
  • More Price development from Intraday analysis to confirm a scenario.

Economic Events for the Week

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/xO03la20-EURUSD-29-3-May-2024-W18-Weekly-Analysis-FOMC-NFP-Week/

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