This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Table of Contents
Market Sentiment
Heavy economic news:
EU: German Prelim CPI m/m
US: the most awaited report Core PCE Price Index m/m – Personal Spending m/m – Chicago PMI
The market sentiment detailed as following:
Trump’s Tariff Announcements:
- President Trump’s announcements regarding new and increased tariffs significantly impacted market sentiment. Uncertainty surrounding trade relations with various countries, including the European Union, Mexico, and Canada, created volatility.
- These tariff announcements created fears of trade wars, which negatively impacted investor confidence.
Economic Data:
- Reports of declining new home sales in the U.S. and concerns about overall economic health contributed to market unease.
- Also, the release of various economic data points, and the anticipation of the PCE inflation data release, influenced market movement.
NVIDIA’s Performance and AI Competition:
- While NVIDIA beat earnings estimates, concerns about increased competition from Chinese AI companies, particularly DeepSeek, led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader tech sector.
Geopolitical Uncertainty:
- Geopolitical factors, such as the removal of Chevron’s oil license in Venezuela, contributed to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil.
- Bank of Japan governor Ueda’s statements regarding the uncertainty of US policies also added to uncertainty.
Additional Factors:
- Geopolitical Resolution: A sudden de-escalation in a prior crisis (e.g., eased tensions in a conflict zone) might have reduced safe-haven demand for gold, though this was secondary to dollar strength.
- Technical Factors: End-of-month rebalancing or options expirations could have amplified downward moves.
The interplay of a hawkish Fed, a resilient dollar, and risk aversion triggered broad-based declines. The overarching theme was a recalibration of investor expectations around tighter monetary policy and its implications for global growth and asset valuations.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Adjusted my INT structure to align with the previous Bullish move)
🔹Complex Swing INT Structure
2️⃣
🔹As the Swing is Bullish, expectations were set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High and create a Bullish BOS after the Deep Pullback to the Swing Demand.
🔹During the Swing Bullish Continuation after the Deep Pullback, INT Structure kept holding Bullish to fulfill the Bullish continuation phase.
🔹With price reaching the Swing Extreme Premium zone and the expectation of breaking the Weak Swing High, price failed 2 times and with the 3rd attempt it created a Bearish iBOS. This indicated that the Swing INT structure is Complex and the Daily/Weekly TFs are still in play.
3️⃣
🔹After the Bearish iBOS, we expect PB, there is no clear POI for price to initiate PB except the Liq. at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before mitigating the last clear 4H Demand.
🔹It’s not a must to reach these Liq. points as we already in a Daily partially mitigated Demand Zone and maybe some orders reside there. But Will need LTFs to show clear Bullish OF to confirm the 4H Bearish INT structure is staring the PB.
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish continuation till we have a clear Bullish OF. Also, keep in mind that Daily and Weekly are still Bearish and we may target the 4H Strong Swing Low to fulfill the Daily and Weekly move.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing structure turned Bearish with confirmed BOS. And after BOS we expect PB phase to start.
🔹We didn’t mitigate any HP POI/Liq. to initiate the Swing PB phase.
🔹Will need a clear INT Structure shift to Bullish with momentum in order to play the PB phase otherwise price will continue Bearish till the sweep of Liq. on the 4H TF at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before tapping the clear 4H Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bearish with cautious from the Swing PB phase that can start at any time.
🔹Also keep in mind the End of Month Flows and PCE report today.
Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/wtIuldxa-EURUSD-28-Feb-2025-W9-Intraday-Analysis-US-PCE-Day-EOM-Flows/
