This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 6-10 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:

Market Sentiment

On Friday, the EUR/USD surged to reach a new high for the week, surpassing recent congestion levels. This uptick followed a significant shortfall in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data regarding labor and wages. The disappointing figures revived expectations across the market for a quicker pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions.

Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.

3.

  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
  • Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.

4.

  • Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.

Daily Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.

3.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
  • As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
  • More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.

4.

  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.

4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bullish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • INT Structure Pullback Phase

2.

  • Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.

3.

  • INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
  • Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don’t have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
  • More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.

Economic Events for the Week

Link to Tradingview Post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURUSD/zmreQs4i-EURUSD-6-10-May-2024-W19-Weekly-Analysis/

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